According to data from China Bus Statistics Information Network, in October 2021, my country sold 4,752 large and medium-sized new energy buses (including 7 meters and above, the same below), a year-on-year decrease of 31.35% and a month-on-month increase of 36.33%. The cumulative sales of large and medium-sized new energy buses from January to October 2021 was 29,751, a year-on-year decline of 24.2%, which was nearly 2 percentage points larger than the decline from January to September, showing unsatisfactory performance. So what are the characteristics of the sales of large and medium-sized new energy buses in October 2021 and the first 10 months?
●October sales of new energy buses: Yutong, Zhongtong and CRRC ranked the top three, Geely commercial vehicles ranked fourth, and five companies achieved "double growth"
Year-on-year and month-on-month increase in sales of new energy buses in October 2021 (data source: China Bus Statistics Information Network):
Comparison of new energy bus sales in October with the bus market compared with the same period last year (data source: China Bus Statistics Information Network):
In the competition of mainstream new energy bus companies in October 2021, the following characteristics will be presented:
Yutong still ranks first, with sales of 718 vehicles, down 61.06% year-on-year and 6.02% month-on-month, with a market share of 15.11%, continuing to lead the industry. Zhongtong’s sales of 683 buses increased by 74.68% year-on-year and 326.68% month-on-month. It was a car company with a double growth year-on-year. It performed well, with a market share of 14.37%, ranking second. CRRC Electric sold 605 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 28.57% and a month-on-month increase of 303.33%. The market has recovered significantly, with a market share of 12.73%, ranking third. Geely’s commercial vehicle sales volume was 443, both a net increase year-on-month and a year-on-year increase, and it performed well, ranking fourth. The sales volume of King Long buses was 356, a year-on-year increase of 2.89% and a month-on-month increase of 102.27%, both year-on-year growth. The market rebounded significantly and performed well, with a market share of 7.9%, ranking fifth.
The sales volume of Ankai bus was 311, a year-on-year increase of 37% and a month-on-month increase of 623.26%, both year-on-year growth. The market rebounded significantly and performed well, with a market share of 6.54%, ranking sixth. The sales volume of Golden Passenger Cars was 269, a year-on-year increase of 99.26% and a surge of 860.71% month-on-month. It was the auto company with the largest month-on-month growth. BYD's bus sales were 269 units, a year-on-year decrease of 72.55% and a month-on-month decrease of 44.07%, with a market share of 5.66%, ranking seventh alongside Golden Passenger Cars. Foton Ouhui has sold 216 buses, an increase of 52.11% year-on-year and a decrease of 9.62% quarter-on-quarter, with a market share of 4.55%, ranking ninth. The sales volume of Higer bus was 201, a year-on-year decrease of 37.77% and a month-on-month decrease of 34.53%. The market share was 4.23%, ranking tenth.
Overall, in October, large and medium-sized new energy buses dropped by 31.35% year-on-year, underperforming the large and medium-sized bus market in October (large and medium-sized buses fell by 22.58% year-on-year) by nearly 8.8 percentage points, a month-on-month increase of 36.33%, and a rebound from the previous month. The phenomenon is obvious. In the Top 10, sales increased 4 times from the previous quarter. The largest year-on-year growth was Golden Passenger Cars, and the largest month-on-month growth was also Golden Passenger Cars. Zhongtong, King Long, Golden Travel, and Ankai achieved both sequential and year-on-year growth.
To sum up, although the large and medium-sized new energy buses in October increased by 36.33% from September, it may be the role of the traditional peak season "Silver Ten", but this effect is not obvious, because the year-on-year drop is still 31.35%. It is hard to see that the performance of new energy buses in October is still not satisfactory. According to the author's analysis, the main reasons are:
First, the current economic environment is under heavy downward pressure. New energy buses are mainly public buses, and public buses are mainly paid by local government finances. Therefore, under the background of relatively tight local finances, the compression of new energy buses is not just needed. It is inevitable. Although the "Golden Nine" is a traditional golden season, the growth of new energy buses is also very limited under the circumstance of economic downturn.
The second is insufficient demand. Due to excessive overdrafts in the past few years, buses in many large cities have basically been electrified. However, due to various reasons such as inconvenient charging and low government subsidies, the demand for small and medium-sized cities is still not strong for the time being.
The third is that urban rail transit, private cars, and online car-hailing have robbed the source of bus passengers. Many bus companies are losing money and their willingness to buy new energy buses has declined.
Fourth, the sales base in the same period last year was relatively high, resulting in a year-on-year drop in October this year.
●New energy bus sales from January to October: Yutong firmly ranked first, Gree Titanium New Energy rose 171%, and five companies achieved positive year-on-year growth
The cumulative sales, year-on-year, and market share of Top 10 large and medium-sized new energy buses from January to October 2021 (data source: China Bus Statistics Information Network):
From January to October 2021, the sales of new energy buses compared with the bus market compared with the same period last year (data source: China Bus Statistics Information Network):
From January to October 2021, the top 10 enterprises in cumulative sales of large and medium-sized new energy buses are Yutong Bus (6805), BYD Bus (3615), CRRC Electric (2700), Zhongtong Bus (2279), Haitian Gebus (1920), King Long (1865), Gree Titanium New Energy (1751), Kaiwo Automobile (1297), Foton Ouhui (1,063), Ankai Bus (997).
In the Top 10 from January to October 2021, Yutong is the only company with a cumulative sales of close to 7,000 vehicles (6805), accounting for more than 20% (22.87%) of the company. Although it continues to rank first, this advantage is gradually shrinking. BYD, CRRC Electric, Zhongtong, Haige, Jinlong Yinlong, Kaiwo, and Foton Ouhui are all 9 companies with cumulative sales of more than 1,000 vehicles. Only Yutong and Yutong have cumulative sales of more than 2,000 vehicles from January to October. Four companies are BYD, CRRC, and Zhongtong. It can be seen that the performance of bus companies in the large and medium-sized new energy bus market from January to October this year was relatively sluggish.
In the Top 10 January-October 2021, cumulative sales increased by 4 and 6 decreased year-on-year. The largest increase was Gree Titanium New Energy, with a year-on-year increase of 1.75 times, followed by Kaiwo Automobile, with an increase of 47.39%, and again by King Long Bus with a year-on-year increase. Reached 12.01%. For the "Three Dragons" (Xiamen Jinlong, Xiamen Jinlu, and Haige Bus) that have attracted much attention in the industry, only Haige Bus and Xiamen Jinlong entered the top 10 in the first 10 months (ranked 5 and 6 respectively).
From January to October, the industry’s cumulative sales of new energy buses over 7 meters was 29,751, a year-on-year decrease of 24.2%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous September decline, and also underperformed the large and medium-sized bus market in the first October of this year (China Bus Statistics Information Internet data show that in the first 10 months of this year, the market for large and medium-sized buses fell by 8.87% year-on-year).
The author believes that the main reasons are:
First, there were many policies to stimulate the growth of new energy buses in the same period last year (On April 23 last year, four ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a new policy for new energy passenger vehicle subsidies, clarifying that the new energy passenger vehicle subsidies will not decline in 2020, and the subsidy will be extended for two years. , Secondly, on July 1st last year, city vehicles will implement the National VI emission, coupled with the accelerated elimination of heavy diesel National III vehicles, accelerated the pace of new energy bus renewal and iteration in the first half of last year). In the first 10 months of this year, there was almost no national policy that directly stimulated the growth of the new energy passenger car market, and the decline of new energy was relatively strong, and no transition period was set.
Second, due to various factors such as the epidemic, which have affected many local finances, plans to purchase new energy buses have been compressed.
Third, squeezed by urban rail transit, online car-hailing, and private cars, the demand for urban buses has decreased.
Fourth, starting from April this year, the country's macroeconomic downward pressure was obvious, and the PMI value continued to decline, which dragged down the new energy bus market in the first October of this year.
Fifth, in the first 10 months of this year, some provinces with large passenger car sales were hit by natural disasters (for example, Henan was hit by floods that have not been seen in a century in July this year, such as Jiangsu, where the epidemic rose in August this year, and cities and areas were closed), sales of new energy buses Severely affected, this will inevitably make the already sluggish new energy bus market even worse.
●From January to October, the market share and market share changes of large and medium-sized new energy buses: the share of the top three in the industry has decreased year-on-year, and the dominant position has gradually been "cannibalized". Zhongtong, "Sanlong", Gree New Energy, Kaiwo, An Kay achieves positive growth
From January to October 2021, the market share and market share of the top 10 new energy buses over 7 meters (data source: China Bus Statistics Information Network):
As can be seen from the above table, the characteristics of the market share changes in the Top 10 new energy buses in the first October of 2021 are:
Yutong's bus market share reached 22.87%, and it was the only car company with a market share of more than 20%. BYD's bus market share was 12.15%, ranking second, down 4.89% year-on-year. CRRC's electric market share is 9.08%, ranking third. It can be seen that the market share of the TOP3 new energy bus companies mentioned above is being eroded by competitors, indicating that the new energy bus market is highly competitive.
In general, the market share of the Top 10 large and medium-sized new energy buses from January to October increased by 6 compared with the same period last year. Gree Titanium New Energy had the largest increase in share, followed by Kaiwo, King Long, Haige, Zhongtong and Ankai.
To sum up, in October this year, large and medium-sized new energy buses fell by more than 30% (-31.35%) year-on-year, and underperformed the large and medium-sized buses market in October. Although they increased by 36.33% month-on-month, it was the result of the traditional sales season "Silver Ten". , The overall increase is not satisfactory. The cumulative amount of large and medium-sized new energy buses from January to October also fell by 24.2% year-on-year, which was nearly 2 percentage points larger than the decline in the previous September (the cumulative decline from January to September was 22.21%). It also underperformed the large and medium-sized buses in the previous October market. On the whole, the cumulative sales of new energy buses of auto companies from January to October are generally not high, and there are less than 2 months left at the end of the year. How the new energy bus market will evolve, we have to wait and see!
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